We’re excited to announce that DivjaLabs researchers Marta De Barba and Tomaž Skrbinšek are among the co-authors of a study just published in Global Change Biology. The research, titled “Trophic Interactions Are Key to Understanding the Effects of Global Change on the Distribution and Functional Role of the Brown Bear,” sheds new light on how climate and land-use change are reshaping the ecological dynamics of Europe’s largest terrestrial predator—the brown bear (Ursus arctos).
Why This Matters
Predicting how species will respond to global change is one of the great challenges of 21st-century ecology. While most studies focus solely on abiotic factors like temperature and land cover, this study takes a major step forward by incorporating biotic interactions—specifically, the brown bear’s food web—into species distribution models.
What the Study Did
The research team compiled an extensive dataset covering 276 food species that brown bears consume across Europe and Türkiye. They modelled the energy contribution of each species and assessed how shifts in prey availability—due to climate and land-use changes—impact the potential distribution of brown bears.
Using Bayesian modelling and spatially detailed food-web data, the researchers compared models using only climate and land-use variables to those that also included trophic data. The verdict? Models that include biotic interactions significantly outperform abiotic-only models, offering more realistic projections of future distribution.
Key Findings
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Brown bear diets vary greatly across Europe—some populations rely heavily on vertebrates, others on fruits, or even human-related food sources.
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The future availability of food species is projected to decline significantly under certain climate scenarios, potentially shrinking the brown bear’s range by up to 36%.
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Subpopulations in south-eastern Europe, such as those in Türkiye and the East Balkans, face the most severe risks due to reduced food web support.
Implications for Conservation
This research reinforces a crucial insight: biodiversity conservation must account for species interactions, not just habitats and climate. For top predators like the brown bear, changes in the availability of food resources can cascade through ecosystems and disrupt their ecological role.
DivjaLabs is proud to contribute to science that pushes the boundaries of ecological modelling and supports smarter, more resilient conservation strategies.