A newly published study in Diversity and Distributions paints a nuanced picture of the future of brown bears in Europe: while large areas of the continent still offer suitable habitat, human-dominated landscapes increasingly restrict the connections that bears need to move, disperse, and maintain healthy populations.
The research, “High Habitat Potential but Limited Connectivity for Brown Bears Throughout Europe”, brings together data from ten European bear populations and Türkiye to assess habitat suitability and connectivity at an unprecedented continental scale. The results reveal that around 37% of Europe could potentially support brown bears—far more than the area they currently occupy. Yet this apparent opportunity comes with a major caveat: suitable habitat is often fragmented, and natural corridors between key regions are increasingly constrained by agriculture, infrastructure, and human development.
A continent of opportunity—and barriers
Using advanced species distribution models and connectivity analyses, the study shows that bears thrive in landscapes with low human development, limited agricultural cover, and proximity to forests. Vast areas of Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, the Carpathians, the Alps, and parts of Southern Europe emerge as highly suitable. However, when the researchers examined how bears might actually move between these areas, a different picture emerged.
Connectivity between northern and southern European bear populations is particularly limited. Large agricultural regions and intensively used landscapes act as barriers, reducing the likelihood of natural recolonisation and gene flow. While some potential corridors exist—especially in Central and Western Europe—many pass through fragmented or unoccupied areas, where bears face additional risks and challenges.
Why connectivity matters
For wide-ranging species like brown bears, habitat alone is not enough. Movement between populations is essential for long-term survival, allowing dispersal, genetic exchange, and adaptation to environmental change. The study highlights that many European bear populations, several of which are already classified as threatened, depend on functional connectivity beyond protected areas and national borders.
The findings also reveal a mismatch between habitat availability and legal protection. Some of the largest and most continuous bear habitats—particularly in northern Europe and western Russia—have relatively low levels of formal protection, while smaller or more fragmented habitats elsewhere may be better protected. This underscores the importance of conservation strategies that extend beyond protected areas and address coexistence in shared landscapes.
DivjaLabs’ contribution
DivjaLabs co-founders Marta De Barba and Tomaž Skrbinšek contributed to this international effort. Marta De Barba was also a coordinator of the BearConnect initiative, which enabled the large-scale integration of brown bear data across Europe. Their involvement reflects DivjaLabs’ long-standing focus on connectivity, population genetics, and transboundary conservation of large carnivores.
From insight to action
By identifying where suitable habitat exists and where connectivity is most at risk, this study provides a critical baseline for future conservation planning. It highlights where natural recolonisation may be possible, where human-assisted measures might be required, and where efforts to promote human–bear coexistence are most urgent.
At DivjaLabs, we work to translate insights like these into practical tools for conservation, management, and policy. If you are interested in connectivity analyses, genetic monitoring, or evidence-based strategies for large carnivore conservation, we invite you to get in touch and explore how we can collaborate.